I finally was able to make it into an Apple store this weekend and get my hands on the Apple iPad to see if all the buzz about the device was warranted. As a follow-up to my post about the iPad, I'd like to make a prediction. I do not believe that the device will sell nearly as well as all the analysts predict.
I say this despite the fact that it technically is great. The screen resolution, responsiveness to the touch, and ease of use is really as good as people have been exhorting. However, I cannot help to wonder what its positioning is in the mind of the customer. In fact, as I stood in the Apple store playing with the iPad, a gentlemen came up to me and said, "Why do I need this? Is it any better than what I have here?" He was pointing to a MacBook he had tucked under his arm. I responded by repeating some of the benefits I had heard, but ended the conversation thinking that perhaps he has a point.
As a precursor, the Wall Street Journal is reporting today that Palm is looking to sell itself. Despite the fact that its new webOS has received very favorable reviews and hits on many of the unmet needs customers have while being mobile, the company has had a difficult time gaining sales. I believe this is absolutely due to their lack of a valued position in the market. RIM has unambiguously staked its claim for the BlackBerry as the device for mobile professionals who need to stay connected to the office and Apple has positioned the iPhone as the elegant, sophisticated multimedia and gaming hand-held. Even Google has pushed Android as the open platform for the "techies." What comes to mind when consumers think of the Palm Pre/Pixi? Not much, that is the problem.
Back to the iPad. As long as it is positioned as another hand-held device rather than a replacement for the computer, I don't think the masses will buy it in volumes. Sure, the "innovators" and "early adopters" will get theirs. However, I believe without a clear and credible point of distinction in the mind of the consumer, like Palm's Pre/Pixi, this product will struggle, at least by Apple's standards. What do you think?
Mobile, tablet, laptop, and desktop computers, are all platforms that are concretely "hired" to run software but are strategically hired to get important consumer jobs done, e.g., make phone calls, send/receive email, conduct research to answer questions, create compositions, watch a show, compute complex scientific calculations, etc. Each platform excels in getting particular jobs done in particular circumstances.
ReplyDeleteFor which circumstances is the tablet platform superior to competing platforms? In what circumstances are computer user poorly served? If those circumstances could be identified then Apple, HP, Lenovo, and others might better be able to figure out what jobs consumers are trying to get done in those circumstances and uncover unique and value positions that differentiate the tablet from competing platforms.
I like what you've said here Zac - kudos for taking a stand.